Quantifying the role of chance in professional football

In football, chance is defined as actions or situations occurring during the game that cannot be planned and are therefore difficult to train for. Take for instance deflected shots, balls that rebound off the post only to be kicked straight into the goal or goals that are unintentionally assisted by a defender. The primary focus of most researchers has been on analyzing success factors, to enable the coach to build these systematically into the training program. But they have often neglected to include the pure chance factor at play. This is because of the difficulty of integrating such random chance factors into training routines and game patterns.

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